March Madness Predictor 2026

Tournament Report Card

Predictor Score

Record

37-10

47 games

Accuracy

78.7%

37 of 47

vs Chalk

+6.4%

Chalk: 34/47

Brier Score

0.130

Excellent

Analysis

Biggest lock: Duke at 99% confidence, a 15-seed gap that played out as expected. Closest call: Kentucky at 52%, basically a coin flip. Called 1 close game correctly, missed 7 upsets. Brier score of 0.130, better than picking by seed alone.

By Round

Round of 6425/32

Round of 3212/15

Sweet 16--

Elite 8+--

Calibration

90%+ confidence21/21 correct

70-89% confidence8/11 correct

<70% confidence8/15 correct

Game Results

+21 correctAll 90%+ confidence locks hitDuke, Michigan State, Connecticut, Arizona, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Purdue, Florida, Nebraska, Illinois, Houston, Michigan, Alabama, Virginia, Iowa State, Duke, Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Houston, Michigan

✓

(4) Kansas 68,(13) California Baptist 60

Pick: Kansas89%

✓

(5) St. John's 79,(12) Northern Iowa 53

Pick: St. John's85%

✓

(6) Tennessee 78,(11) Miami (Ohio) 56

Pick: Tennessee85%

✓

(7) Kentucky 63,(2) Iowa State 82

Pick: Iowa State85%

✗

(5) Wisconsin 82,(12) High Point 83

Pick: Wisconsin84%

✓

(5) Vanderbilt 78,(12) McNeese 68

Pick: Vanderbilt84%

✗

(1) Florida 72,(9) Iowa 73

Pick: Florida83%

✓

(5) Texas Tech 91,(12) Akron 71

Pick: Texas Tech83%

✓

(6) Louisville 83,(11) South Florida 79

Pick: Louisville75%

✓

(7) UCLA 75,(10) Central Florida 71

Pick: UCLA73%

✗

(11) Texas 74,(3) Gonzaga 68

Pick: Gonzaga71%

✓

(7) UCLA 57,(2) Connecticut 73

Pick: Connecticut69%

✗

(8) Ohio State 64,(9) TCU 66

Pick: Ohio State68%

✗

(6) North Carolina 78,(11) VCU 82

Pick: North Carolina65%

✓

(5) St. John's 67,(4) Kansas 65

Pick: St. John's64%

✗

(7) Miami (FLA.) 27,(10) Missouri 66

Pick: Miami (FLA.)61%

✗

(5) Vanderbilt 72,(4) Nebraska 74

Pick: Vanderbilt61%

✓

(8) Clemson 61,(9) Iowa 67

Pick: Iowa61%

✓

(6) Louisville 69,(3) Michigan State 77

Pick: Michigan State59%

✗

(7) St. Mary's (CA) 50,(10) Texas A&M 63

Pick: St. Mary's (CA)57%

✗

(6) BYU 71,(11) Texas 79

Pick: BYU56%

✓

(5) Texas Tech 65,(4) Alabama 90

Pick: Alabama56%

✓

(6) Tennessee 79,(3) Virginia 72

Pick: Tennessee56%

✓

(8) Villanova 76,(9) Utah State 86

Pick: Utah State55%

✓

(7) Kentucky 89,(10) Santa Clara 84

Pick: Kentucky52%

✗

(8) Georgia 77,(9) Saint Louis 102

Pick: Georgia50%

Biggest Misses

High PointoverWisconsin

(12) vs (5) 82-83

We said 84%

IowaoverFlorida

(9) vs (1) 72-73

We said 83%

TexasoverGonzaga

(11) vs (3) 74-68

We said 71%

TCUoverOhio State

(9) vs (8) 64-66

We said 68%

VCUoverNorth Carolina

(11) vs (6) 78-82

We said 65%

Selection Sunday Report Card

We projected 49 of 68 tournament teams correctly

Field

72.1%

Seeds

74%

Top 8

75%

Bubble

66.7%

Pre-tournament projection accuracy from March 15