2026 NCAA Tournament. 68 teams. Round of 64 underway.
March Madness Predictor combines analytics, simulations, and expert analysis to generate championship odds for all 68 tournament teams. Here's what powers the predictions.
Every team gets a Madness Score from 0–100. This is our single composite rating that captures how likely a team is to make a deep tournament run. It's built from four weighted components:
Weights below reflect Act 1 (pre-Selection Sunday). Once the bracket is set, path difficulty replaces some analytics weight.
Ensemble Analytics (50%)
Adjusted efficiency margin, offensive and defensive ratings per 100 possessions, opponent-adjusted. Blends Barttorvik (60%) and ESPN BPI (40%). These are tempo-free metrics that account for strength of schedule and recency.
Championship Probability (30%)
We simulate the tournament 10,000 times using team ratings. The simulation accounts for bracket structure and the compounding difficulty of winning six consecutive games against randomized opponents drawn from the field.
Expert Sentiment (15%)
Aggregated analysis from college basketball podcasts and writers. This captures information that pure numbers miss: coaching adjustments, injury context, momentum shifts, and the kind of pattern recognition experienced analysts bring.
Historical Pedigree (5%)
Championship-program track record. Teams with proven tournament infrastructure (experienced coaching staffs, consistent deep runs) get a small credit beyond what efficiency metrics capture.
Team efficiency ratings (AdjEM, AdjOE, AdjDE) are sourced from public college basketball analytics databases. These are tempo-free efficiency metrics adjusted for opponent strength and schedule difficulty.
Market odds shown on team cards represent consensus lines aggregated from major US sportsbooks. Odds are presented for informational context only and are updated periodically throughout the season.
Expert sentiment is sourced from public podcasts and articles covering college basketball. Analysis is processed and summarized to extract team-specific predictions, reasoning, and sentiment, then scored on a bullish/bearish scale with confidence weighting.
Expert summaries on team cards are syntheses of multiple analyst viewpoints. They are not direct quotes. Individual analyst perspectives are available on the Insights tab with source attribution.
The expert sentiment score (0–100) reflects the overall analyst outlook on a team's tournament prospects. It's derived from structured extraction of podcast transcripts and published analysis.
We monitor college basketball podcasts and articles, extract analyst predictions, reasoning, and sentiment, then score each insight on a bullish/bearish scale. Each insight is categorized (championship pick, Final Four, sleeper, upset candidate, fade) and weighted by confidence level.
The sentiment score aggregates all analyst coverage for that team. “5 sources” means five distinct analyst perspectives informed the score. The STRONG BUY / LEAN BUY / HOLD / LEAN SELL / SELL labels reflect the balance of bullish vs. bearish coverage.
Expert takes shown on team cards are condensed from full articles and podcasts. The source analyst and outlet are always attributed. For the full context, go to the original source.
Each team card shows the simulation's championship probability alongside current market odds. When the two diverge, it highlights where the betting market may be over- or under-pricing a team.
The +X.X% badge indicates the difference between the simulation's probability and the implied probability from market odds. A positive number means the simulation gives higher odds than the market. A negative number means the books are pricing that team higher than the simulation.
This comparison is purely informational. Markets aggregate the opinions of thousands of bettors with real money at stake. When the simulation disagrees with the market, the market is often right.
No model predicts March Madness with high accuracy. The tournament is a single-elimination event where variance is enormous. A team with 20% championship odds is genuinely strong, but they still lose 80% of the time. Use these predictions as one input among many, not as certainty.
The expert sentiment layer reflects the views of a specific set of analysts whose content is publicly available. It does not cover all college basketball analysis.
We believe sports predictions should be transparent. If you have questions about our methodology or want to understand a specific team's rating, reach out on Twitter/X.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. Not gambling advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
March Madness Predictor is an independent analytics project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NCAA, any college or university, any sportsbook, or any media outlet whose analysis is referenced.
All referenced podcast and article content is publicly available and used under fair use for commentary and analysis purposes.
Expert takes are condensed from public sources and attributed to the analyst and outlet. Nothing on this site should be read as a direct quote unless a transcript is cited.