Arizona drops 10.3% | Final Four up next
47-13 through 60 games. Outperforming chalk by 6.6%. 10 upsets so far. Arizona down 10.3% to 20.0%.
Model Shifts (24h)
Model vs. Market
Expert Pulse
6770 insights · 10 sources
Biggest Movers This Week
Title Favorites
3Michigan
1-seed · Midwest · Big Ten
44.6%
Model odds
Market
+161 · 34.7% implied
Model +9.9%Adj EM
+37.4
Adj OE
129.4
Adj DE
92.0
Blake Toppmeyer USA TODAY (USA Today): “The 2000 Michigan State Spartans remain the last Big Ten team to win a national championship.”
Arizona
1-seed · West · Big 12
35.9%
Model odds
Market
+176 · 32.7% implied
Model +3.2%Adj EM
+36.2
Adj OE
127.9
Adj DE
91.7
by Mike Rutherford (SB Nation): “Arizona certainly backed up the growing notion that they should be viewed as the current favorite to cut down the nets.”
Duke
ELIMINATED1-seed · East · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+35.5
Adj OE
128.1
Adj DE
92.6
Paul Myerberg USA TODAY (USA Today): “WASHINGTON – A freshman superstar leads Duke to an ACC championship.”
Final Four Contenders
23Florida
ELIMINATED1-seed · South · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+33.5
Adj OE
126.8
Adj DE
93.3
By Cameron Salerno (CBS): “9 Iowa is fresh off a win over reigning national champion Florida last weekend, and up next on the schedule is a matchup against Big Ten foe Nebraska...”
Illinois
3-seed · South · Big Ten
16.9%
Model odds
Market
+439 · 16.8% implied
Adj EM
+34.7
Adj OE
132.5
Adj DE
97.8
by Ricky O'Donnell (SB Nation): “The Illinois Fighting Illini were identified as a Final Four sleeper back in early January.”
Purdue
ELIMINATED2-seed · West · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+32.4
Adj OE
133.3
Adj DE
100.9
By Cameron Salerno (CBS): “The Wildcats haven't been to the Final Four since 2001, while Purdue reached the national title game in 2024 before losing to UConn.”
Houston
ELIMINATED2-seed · South · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+32.9
Adj OE
124.8
Adj DE
91.9
by Scott Phillips (SB Nation): “After falling short in the title game last season, Houston would love another shot at a championship behind a deep and versatile roster.”
Connecticut
2-seed · East · Big East
2.7%
Model odds
Market
+613 · 12.8% implied
Market +10.1%Adj EM
+28.6
Adj OE
123.8
Adj DE
95.2
Iowa State
ELIMINATED2-seed · Midwest · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+30.4
Adj OE
123.6
Adj DE
93.2
by Scott Phillips (SB Nation): “Previously making the second weekend at his alma mater, Iowa State, in 2014, Hoiberg’s rejuvenated coaching career for a program with zero basketball...”
Michigan State
ELIMINATED3-seed · East · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+27.1
Adj OE
123.2
Adj DE
96.1
By Chip Patterson (CBS): “Michigan State was the last Big Ten team to win it all, claiming the title back in 2000, and it just so happens that was the same tournament that saw...”
Arkansas
ELIMINATED4-seed · West · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+25.6
Adj OE
128.4
Adj DE
102.8
Associated Press (ESPN): “-- John Calipari told his 17th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks to use the SEC tournament title game to measure where they are before the NCAA tournament.”
Alabama
ELIMINATED4-seed · Midwest · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+28.0
Adj OE
130.4
Adj DE
102.4
By Ryan Wooden (CBS): “The Wildcats also won non-conference games against Florida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn and Alabama, establishing themselves as national championship...”
Kansas
ELIMINATED4-seed · East · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+22.9
Adj OE
117.0
Adj DE
94.1
Myron Medcalf Mar 21, 2026, 01:00 AM ET (ESPN): “Kansas, at Arizona), the Cougars have played like a national championship contender a year after losing to Florida in the title game.”
Louisville
ELIMINATED6-seed · East · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+24.8
Adj OE
123.6
Adj DE
98.8
Craig Meyer USA TODAY NETWORK (USA Today): “Back then: Albrecht and Hancock traded baskets in a frenetic first half between Michigan and Louisville in the 2013 national championship game,...”
Gonzaga
ELIMINATED3-seed · West · WCC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+24.8
Adj OE
119.5
Adj DE
94.7
By Gary Parrish (CBS): “Gonzaga has won 22 West Coast Conference Tournament championships over the years, including 17 of the past 23 titles.”
Virginia
ELIMINATED3-seed · Midwest · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+25.0
Adj OE
122.6
Adj DE
97.6
Kyle Boone (CBS): “Virginia's 51-point output represented their worst performance in 47 games, demonstrating how Duke's elite defense exploited their offensive limitations despite their recent nin...”
St. John's
ELIMINATED5-seed · East · Big East
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+27.5
Adj OE
121.3
Adj DE
93.8
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “St. John's suffered a humiliating 72-40 loss to UConn, with the team's shooting and offensive execution completely falling apart. Rick Pitino's refusal to attend the full postga...”
UCLA
ELIMINATED7-seed · East · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+22.5
Adj OE
124.0
Adj DE
101.5
Matt Hayes USA TODAY (USA Today): “Only UCLA under legendary coach John Wooden has had multiple back-to-back national championships seasons.”
Wisconsin
ELIMINATED5-seed · West · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+25.0
Adj OE
127.0
Adj DE
102.0
by Ricky O'Donnell (SB Nation): “The Wisconsin duo believes it’s the best backcourt in the country, and they proved it in their ridiculous comeback win against an Illini team with...”
Vanderbilt
ELIMINATED5-seed · South · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+27.5
Adj OE
127.9
Adj DE
100.4
By Daniel Kohn (CBS): “The third-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks take on the fourth-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores for the 2026 SEC Tournament championship on Sunday.”
Texas Tech
ELIMINATED5-seed · Midwest · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+25.9
Adj OE
125.9
Adj DE
100.0
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “Texas Tech is an elite team capable of making tournament noise despite losing JT Toppin to a season-ending injury. They've beaten four teams that were top-5 at the time of the g...”
Tennessee
ELIMINATED6-seed · Midwest · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+26.4
Adj OE
121.6
Adj DE
95.2
Nebraska
ELIMINATED4-seed · South · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+24.4
Adj OE
118.3
Adj DE
93.9
By Cameron Salerno (CBS): “9 Iowa is fresh off a win over reigning national champion Florida last weekend, and up next on the schedule is a matchup against Big Ten foe Nebraska...”
North Carolina
ELIMINATED6-seed · South · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+20.5
Adj OE
120.6
Adj DE
100.1
by Ricky O'Donnell (SB Nation): “Davis got North Carolina to the national championship in 2022 in a run that included a Final Four victory over Duke in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game,...”
Ohio State
ELIMINATED8-seed · East · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+23.0
Adj OE
124.7
Adj DE
101.7
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “Ohio State's tournament chances have deteriorated significantly after losing at Iowa 74-57, dropping them further down the bubble despite starting the game well with a 14-2 lead...”
Kentucky
ELIMINATED7-seed · Midwest · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.7
Adj OE
119.9
Adj DE
100.2
Hansbrough (F68): “Kentucky is in a much better place now than at the start of the season, with players executing their roles better and showing improved effort and fundamentals.”
Sleepers
11Villanova
ELIMINATED8-seed · West · Big East
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.0
Adj OE
120.0
Adj DE
101.0
Iowa
ELIMINATED9-seed · South · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+23.7
Adj OE
124.8
Adj DE
101.1
by Scott Phillips (SB Nation): “Previously making the second weekend at his alma mater, Iowa State, in 2014, Hoiberg’s rejuvenated coaching career for a program with zero basketball...”
BYU
ELIMINATED6-seed · West · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.5
Adj OE
124.2
Adj DE
104.7
By Matt Severance (CBS): “This is really more a fade of BYU, which was a legit national title contender behind superstar freshman AJ Dybantsa, expected to be the top pick in...”
Utah State
ELIMINATED9-seed · West · MWC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+21.2
Adj OE
123.8
Adj DE
102.6
Jeff Borzello (ESPN): “As a program, Utah State has gone to six of the past seven NCAA tournaments and won three Mountain West regular-season championships and three...”
Miami (FLA.)
ELIMINATED7-seed · West · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.5
Adj OE
120.9
Adj DE
101.4
Georgia
ELIMINATED8-seed · Midwest · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.3
Adj OE
123.9
Adj DE
105.6
St. Mary's (CA)
ELIMINATED7-seed · South · WCC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.9
Adj OE
118.0
Adj DE
98.1
Saint Louis
ELIMINATED9-seed · Midwest · A-10
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.1
Adj OE
120.5
Adj DE
102.4
Santa Clara
ELIMINATED10-seed · Midwest · WCC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+20.3
Adj OE
125.0
Adj DE
104.7
Clemson
ELIMINATED8-seed · South · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.2
Adj OE
116.6
Adj DE
98.4
Texas
ELIMINATED11-seed · West · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.9
Adj OE
124.1
Adj DE
105.2
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “Texas's 84-71 loss at home to number seven Florida is a devastating missed opportunity that significantly hurts their bubble positioning, as they had leads early and were at hal...”
The Field
27Missouri
ELIMINATED10-seed · West · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+16.3
Adj OE
119.8
Adj DE
103.5
By Chip Patterson (CBS): “Top team -- Missouri, West Region: At its best, Missouri is a dangerous offensive team capable of stringing together scoring runs and beating some of...”
Texas A&M
ELIMINATED10-seed · South · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.1
Adj OE
119.5
Adj DE
101.4
TCU
ELIMINATED9-seed · East · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+15.2
Adj OE
114.6
Adj DE
99.4
VCU
ELIMINATED11-seed · South · A-10
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+16.1
Adj OE
118.5
Adj DE
102.4
South Florida
ELIMINATED11-seed · East · AAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+15.6
Adj OE
117.0
Adj DE
101.4
Central Florida
ELIMINATED10-seed · East · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+13.7
Adj OE
119.5
Adj DE
105.8
Akron
ELIMINATED12-seed · Midwest · MAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+11.5
Adj OE
117.9
Adj DE
106.4
High Point
ELIMINATED12-seed · West · Big South
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+9.6
Adj OE
116.7
Adj DE
107.1
McNeese
ELIMINATED12-seed · South · Southland
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+11.7
Adj OE
113.8
Adj DE
102.1
Northern Iowa
ELIMINATED12-seed · East · MVC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+10.6
Adj OE
109.9
Adj DE
99.3
Miami (Ohio)
ELIMINATED11-seed · Midwest · MAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+9.3
Adj OE
117.1
Adj DE
107.8
ESPN Research (ESPN): “Miami (Ohio)'s unbeaten 29-0 record and composure in tight games positions them as a legitimate national championship threat, having joined an elite group of only four Division ...”
Hofstra
ELIMINATED13-seed · Midwest · CAA
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+8.6
Adj OE
113.5
Adj DE
104.9
California Baptist
ELIMINATED13-seed · East · WAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+6.3
Adj OE
107.0
Adj DE
100.7
North Dakota State
ELIMINATED14-seed · East · Summit
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+4.5
Adj OE
111.1
Adj DE
106.6
Hawaii
ELIMINATED13-seed · West · Big West
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+4.2
Adj OE
106.8
Adj DE
102.6
Wright State
ELIMINATED14-seed · Midwest · Horizon
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+4.1
Adj OE
113.3
Adj DE
109.2
Troy
ELIMINATED13-seed · South · Sun Belt
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+1.0
Adj OE
110.2
Adj DE
109.2
Penn
ELIMINATED14-seed · South · Ivy
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+1.5
Adj OE
107.8
Adj DE
106.3
Furman
ELIMINATED15-seed · East · SoCon
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-1.0
Adj OE
108.3
Adj DE
109.3
Kennesaw State
ELIMINATED14-seed · West · ASUN
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+2.0
Adj OE
111.1
Adj DE
109.1
Queens
ELIMINATED15-seed · West · ASUN
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-2.3
Adj OE
115.3
Adj DE
117.6
Idaho
ELIMINATED15-seed · South · Big Sky
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+1.6
Adj OE
108.1
Adj DE
106.5
Siena
ELIMINATED16-seed · East · MAAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+0.3
Adj OE
108.4
Adj DE
108.1
Howard
ELIMINATED16-seed · Midwest · MEAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-0.9
Adj OE
106.5
Adj DE
107.4
Tennessee State
ELIMINATED15-seed · Midwest · OVC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-4.0
Adj OE
108.2
Adj DE
112.2
Long Island
ELIMINATED16-seed · West · NEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-6.1
Adj OE
104.1
Adj DE
110.2
Prairie View A&M
ELIMINATED16-seed · South · SWAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-9.6
Adj OE
101.7
Adj DE
111.3